Florida Keys Market Update: September 2026

The Florida Keys real estate market remains supply-constrained and price-positive as we head into fall 2026. The most recent Keys-wide data shows a residential median sale price of $965,000, up 12% year-over-year, with roughly 2,064 active listings across Monroe County as of late May, a gradually loosening but far-from-balanced inventory picture. Demand from out-of-state buyers, second-home purchasers, and boating enthusiasts continues to outpace supply in most of the island chain, setting up noticeably different conditions from one community to the next.

Market Snapshot: Key Numbers at a Glance

Here is the current state of the Florida Keys real estate market based on the most recent available data:

• Overall median sale price: $965,000, up 12% year-over-year (Keys Listings monthly report, May 2026).
• Keys-wide average sale price: $1,432,069 in Q1 2026, with sales up in every submarket (Coldwell Banker Schmitt).
• Active inventory: approximately 2,064 residential listings in Monroe County as of late May 2026, up from about 1,800 in January (Keys Weekly / Keys News).
• Average days on market: about 106 days Keys-wide in May 2026; a recent Coldwell Banker Schmitt report shows roughly 107 days.
• Alternate broker snapshot: Momentum Realty counted 1,389 active listings at a $961,000 median price in June 2026, a reminder that listing counts vary by source and cut-off date.
• Broader Florida: single-family median $415,000, up 1.2% year-over-year with about 4.3 months of supply in August 2026 (Florida Realtors).
• National context: U.S. existing-home median $429,100, up 1.6% year-over-year with 4.9 months of supply (National Association of Realtors, August 2026).

Figures come from the most recent reports and tracking sources available for each community and may cover slightly different periods. Small markets like Big Pine Key and the Lower Keys can show wide swings month to month.

Upper Keys Breakdown: Key Largo, Tavernier, Islamorada

Key Largo remains the volume leader and the natural entry point for buyers coming down the Overseas Highway. Redfin data shows a median sale price around $980,000, up roughly 20% year-over-year, while Zillow puts the average home value at about $1,095,644, up 2.0%. Homes are pending in roughly 88 days on Zillow's tracking, and local reports show closed sales up 26.7% year-over-year as of March 2026. Inventory of roughly 278 to 391 active listings gives buyers more options than in Islamorada, but well-priced canal-front and ocean-access homes still move quickly.

Tavernier sits in the heart of the Upper Keys between Key Largo and Islamorada, home to our COMPASS office at 90144 Overseas Hwy. Dedicated Tavernier 2026 statistics were not published in the sources tracked for this update, but the town shares the Upper Keys dynamic: tight inventory, strong out-of-state demand, and premium pricing driven by proximity to both the Atlantic and Florida Bay. Buyers who want Upper Keys access with a slightly quieter feel than the main tourism corridors consistently include Tavernier in their search.

Islamorada remains the premium market in the island chain. Redfin shows a median sale price of $1,334,202, up 27.1% year-over-year as of May 2026, and Movoto reports about 74 active listings with a median list price near $2.55 million, up about 27% year-over-year. The sportfishing capital of the world attracts a dedicated luxury buyer pool, and listings with marina access, direct ocean frontage, or deep-water canals continue to draw multiple offers. Cash buyers from out of state remain a dominant force in the top tier of this market.

Middle and Lower Keys Breakdown: Marathon, Big Pine Key, the Lower Keys

Marathon posted a median sale price of $1.0 million in Redfin's three months ending June 2026, up 43.4% year-over-year (a figure that reflects small-market volatility as much as appreciation), with 84 closed sales and an average of about 99 days on market versus 106 a year earlier. Zillow's average home value for the Middle Keys hub is a more conservative $827,635, up 0.2%, with homes pending in about 123 days. With roughly 245 active listings on Movoto's count, Marathon offers the deepest selection in the Middle Keys for families and full-time residents.

Big Pine Key remains one of the more affordable entry points in the chain and one of the most interesting stories this year. Redfin's August 2026 data shows a median sale price of $886,913, up 28.7% year-over-year, while RealtyTrac's May 2026 figures put the median sold price at $821,000, up 8.5%, with roughly 96 to 111 active listings. Inventory in the 33043 ZIP rose sharply, climbing more than 250% between June 2025 and May 2026, which has moderated some of the earlier frenzy. Homes average about 110 days on market. The National Key Deer Refuge and low-density, natural character keep Big Pine on the radar for buyers who want Keys living without the tourist corridors.

The Lower Keys, including Sugarloaf Key, Cudjoe Key, and Summerland Key, led every Keys submarket with a 17% year-over-year increase in average sale price during Q1 2026, according to Coldwell Banker Schmitt. Summerland data shows a median sale price near $1.1 million over the trailing 12 months, with RealtyTrac reporting an April median sold price of $1.2 million, up 17% year-over-year. Cudjoe Key figures swing widely because so few homes change hands. Near Key West, the city itself shows how slow the premium end can move: 24 closed sales in August 2026 with a median of $791,650 and an average 289 days on market, versus 103 days a year earlier. Lower Keys buyers find the most space and seclusion for the price, and they pay for it in days on market.

Waterfront vs. Non-Waterfront Market Dynamics

Waterfront access remains the defining feature of the Keys market. Homes with private docks, deep-water canals, or direct ocean frontage draw the strongest competition and the most cash buyers, and they are the segment where the supply squeeze is most visible across Key Largo, Islamorada, and Marathon. Dockage is a lifestyle asset in a boating community, and sellers who document water depth, seawall condition, and bridge clearance tend to shorten their time on market.

Non-waterfront properties offer a more accessible path into the same communities, often with more land and living space for the same budget. Buyers priced out of the waterfront tier are increasingly targeting non-waterfront homes near community boat ramps, marinas, and parks, which keeps demand healthy in that segment as well.

What This Means for Buyers

• Expect to compete in the Upper Keys. With Islamorada and Key Largo median prices up 20% to 27% year-over-year and listings thin, come pre-approved and be ready to move when the right home appears.
• Look at Marathon and Big Pine Key for selection. These markets hold the deepest inventory in the chain, and Big Pine's rise in listings has created more negotiating room than buyers had a year ago.
• Budget for days on market. Slower averages in the Lower Keys and Key West mean patience is part of the strategy there, while Upper Keys waterfront can still sell in weeks.
• Verify the details that matter in the Keys. Flood zone, insurance cost, ROGO allocation, seawall and dock condition, and water depth. My Florida Keys buying guide walks through the process, and contact me for a personalized search plan.

What This Means for Sellers

• You are selling into a price-positive market. Every Keys submarket posted a higher average sale price in Q1 2026, and the Upper Keys continue to post double-digit median gains. Well-priced, well-presented homes in Key Largo and Islamorada can still generate quick offers.
• Price discipline matters more than ever. With inventory up from January levels, overpriced homes sit while comparable neighbors sell. Recent closed sales, not list prices, should drive your number. My selling guide covers the full strategy.
• Waterfront features are your strongest marketing asset. Dockage, water depth, seawall condition, and bridge clearance are what serious buyers underwrite. Lead with documentation, including any flood elevation certificate.
• Expect longer timelines below the Seven Mile Bridge. In the Lower Keys and Key West, homes are selling, just more slowly than in the Upper Keys.

Market Outlook

• Inventory is building slowly. From about 1,800 active listings in January to roughly 2,064 by late May, supply is rising but remains well below balanced-market levels. Expect the island market to stay tilted toward sellers through the fall, with more balance in Marathon and Big Pine Key.
• Interest rates and cash buyers. National rate pressure is cooling the broader market, but a large share of Keys buyers, particularly in the luxury and waterfront tiers, transact in cash, which insulates the islands from the worst of the rate shock.
• Insurance remains the wildcard. Coastal property insurance costs and flood requirements continue to shape buyer decisions and seller disclosures.
• Keys vs. Florida. Florida's August 2026 report showed prices holding firm with supply still tight, and the Keys sit even tighter than the state average. The structural scarcity of buildable waterfront land means Keys pricing should keep outperforming statewide trends through 2027.

For a personalized market analysis of your target community, reach me directly at Steve@conleysalesgroup.com or call (305) 393-5859. I track these numbers monthly and am happy to walk through what they mean for your specific search or sale.