Are Home Prices Going Up or Down in the Florida Keys?

What the latest data shows

For Monroe County / the Florida Keys, Momentum Research reports a September 2026 median closed sale price of $1.01 million, up 15.1% from September 2025. Homes went under contract in a median of 83 days, and the median sale-to-original-list ratio was 92.5%. Momentum Realty

However, Realtor.com shows a different side of the market. In September 2026, the countywide median listing price was $1.175 million, down 4.17% year over year. The median sold price was $975,000, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. Realtor.com also classifies Monroe County as a buyer's market, with homes selling about 4.55% below asking price on average. Realtor.com

So the best description is:

The Keys market is mixed: sellers are still achieving strong prices in many segments, but buyers have gained negotiating power and asking prices have come down.

Why are the numbers telling different stories?

Because asking prices and actual closed-sale prices are not the same thing.

A seller may list a home at $1.2 million, but if it ultimately sells for $1.05 million, the $1.2 million contributes to the listing-price statistics while the $1.05 million contributes to the closed-sale statistics.

There's another complication: the Keys have a small, highly variable market. One month may have a large number of luxury waterfront sales while another month has more modest homes and condos.

That's why I would not use a single month's median to declare that the entire Keys market is rising or falling.

Asking Prices Have Been Coming Down

This is one of the clearest signs that buyers have gained leverage.

FRED's Monroe County median-list-price series shows the median asking price falling from approximately:

• $1.35 million — January 2026
• $1.30 million — February
• $1.297 million — March
• $1.25 million — April
• $1.20 million — May
• $1.199 million — June
• $1.195 million — July
• $1.175 million — August FRED

That represents a meaningful decline in asking prices during 2026.

But it doesn't mean every Keys property lost value.

Closed Prices Tell a More Complicated Story

Momentum's September data shows a 15.1% year-over-year increase in the median closed price, reaching $1.01 million. Momentum Realty

At the same time, Momentum's August analysis showed the median closed price was approximately $910,000, almost unchanged from $907,500 a year earlier. Momentum Realty

That month-to-month movement illustrates why you need to be careful with the headline numbers.

The mix of homes that actually sell can dramatically affect the median in a relatively small market.

The Market Is Becoming More Negotiable

This may be the most useful takeaway for buyers.

Realtor.com reports that Monroe County homes sold for approximately 95% of asking price in September, and the county had 1,843 active listings. Realtor.com

Momentum's September data is even more conservative, showing a 92.5% sale-to-original-list ratio. Momentum Realty

That tells us something important:

Sellers are not necessarily getting their original asking price.

For buyers, that can create opportunities to negotiate:

• Price
• Closing costs
• Repairs
• Credits
• Inspection items
• Rate buydowns
• Furniture
• Other concessions

Marathon Is a Good Example of the Market Split

Marathon demonstrates why you shouldn't use one number to describe the entire Keys.

Realtor.com's September 2026 data shows:

• Median listing price: $1.2 million
• Year-over-year listing-price change: +11.54%
• Median sold price: $742,500
• Year-over-year sold-price change: -49.45%
• Active listings: 305
• Median days on market: 92 Realtor.com

That enormous difference between the listing and sold-price statistics isn't evidence that Marathon homes suddenly lost half their value.

It's largely a reflection of which properties sold during the period.

The local August 2026 analysis makes this point explicitly: Marathon's single-family median fell 45% year over year to $857,000, but only 11 single-family homes closed, making the median highly sensitive to the individual properties in that month's sample. Jim Signor - Florida Keys Real Estate

That's why I would avoid telling readers:

"Marathon home prices are down 45%."

That's misleading.

Are Buyers Getting a Better Deal?

In many cases, yes.

Even if the underlying value of a desirable Keys property remains strong, buyers currently have more leverage than they did during the pandemic-era boom.

The evidence includes:

• More inventory
• Longer marketing periods
• Sale prices below original asking prices
• More price reductions
• Greater differentiation between well-priced and overpriced properties

Realtor.com currently characterizes Monroe County as a buyer's market. Realtor.com

That doesn't mean buyers can expect a 20% discount on every property.

A desirable waterfront home with excellent boating access, good elevation, strong construction and a quality renovation can still attract strong demand.

What About Waterfront Homes?

This is where the market becomes even more segmented.

A Florida Keys waterfront property isn't interchangeable with another waterfront property.

Value depends heavily on:

• Canal depth
• Open-water access
• Dock
• Boat lift
• Seawall
• Elevation
• Flood exposure
• View
• Lot size
• Location
• Renovation quality
• Vacation-rental eligibility

A desirable deep-water canal home in a good location can behave very differently from an older canal home with a shallow waterway and a deteriorating seawall.

So when someone asks:

"Are waterfront prices going down?"

the honest answer is:

Some properties are seeing price reductions, but desirable waterfront properties remain highly property-specific.

What About Condos?

The condo market deserves separate attention.

Current Keys market reporting shows a significant split between single-family homes and condos/townhouses. In August 2026, local market data showed single-family inventory down 15% year over year, while condo/townhouse inventory and demand behaved differently. The report cautioned that the condo median was heavily affected by a small number of closings. Jim Signor - Florida Keys Real Estate

For a buyer, this means:

Don't assume the single-family market and condo market are moving together.

Condos can also have additional considerations such as:

• HOA fees
• Insurance
• Building reserves
• Special assessments
• Structural inspections
• Association rental restrictions

Are the Keys Still More Expensive Than Florida Overall?

Absolutely.

Momentum's September 2026 data puts the Florida Keys median closed price around $1.01 million, compared with approximately $426,099 for Florida overall. Momentum Realty

That large price gap reflects the Keys' limited land supply, waterfront demand, tourism economy and unique lifestyle.

So even if Keys prices soften from their peak, that doesn't necessarily make the market "cheap."

What Does This Mean for Buyers?

If you're considering buying a Keys home in 2026, I wouldn't wait simply because you expect prices to collapse.

Instead, I'd focus on property-specific value.

Look for:

• A realistic asking price
• A property that's been sitting on the market
• Previous price reductions
• Motivated sellers
• Good inspection results
• Manageable insurance
• Good elevation
• Strong waterfront characteristics
• Clean permitting
• No major seawall or dock problems

The current market gives buyers more room to negotiate than they had during the strongest seller-market periods.

What Does This Mean for Sellers?

Sellers need to be much more realistic about pricing.

The market is not necessarily saying:

"Your house isn't worth what it was."

It's saying:

"Buyers have more alternatives, and they are becoming more selective."

Overpricing can result in:

• Longer days on market
• Repeated price reductions
• Fewer showings
• Buyers negotiating more aggressively
• A final sale price below what could have been achieved with better initial pricing

The gap between listing price and actual market value is therefore increasingly important.

So, Are Home Prices Going Up or Down?

My answer for Ask Steve:

Both things are happening.

Closed-sale prices remain strong in the broader Keys market, with September 2026 median sales up year over year in one current MLS-based dataset. But asking prices have declined from early-2026 levels, and buyers have more negotiating power. Momentum Realty

In other words:

The Florida Keys aren't experiencing a simple market-wide crash or boom. They're moving into a more selective, negotiable market.

The best properties can still command strong prices.

Overpriced properties are more likely to sit.

And buyers who do their homework may have more opportunities to negotiate than they did a few years ago.