How Much Below Asking Price Are Florida Keys Homes Actually Selling For in 2026?

The latest September 2026 closed-sale data provides an interesting answer.

According to Momentum Research, the Florida Keys had a $1.025 million median closed-sale price in September 2026, up 16.8% from September 2025. Homes went under contract in a median of 83 days, five days faster than the same month last year.

But there's another number buyers and sellers shouldn't overlook:

The median Florida Keys home sold for 92.5% of its original asking price.

That means that, measured from the property's first list price, the typical closed sale represented approximately 7.5% below the original asking price.

So while homes are moving somewhat faster and closed-sale prices are up year over year, buyers are still negotiating.

And that's an important distinction.

The September 2026 Numbers at a Glance

Here is what the latest complete month of Momentum Research data shows for Monroe County's Florida Keys market:

Momentum's figures are based on MLS records for Monroe County and represent closed residential sales.

The combination is particularly interesting.

Prices are up.

Homes are moving slightly faster.

But sellers are still accepting considerably less than their original asking prices.

What Does 92.5% of Original Asking Price Actually Mean?

This number needs a little explanation.

The 92.5% figure is measured against the home's original list price, not necessarily the final asking price immediately before closing.

That's important.

Imagine a hypothetical property:

Original asking price: $1,000,000

The seller later reduces the price to:

$950,000

And the property eventually sells for:

$925,000

The buyer paid:

92.5% of the original $1 million asking price.

But the buyer only negotiated about 2.6% below the final reduced asking price.

This is why the 92.5% figure should not be interpreted as:

"Every Florida Keys buyer can offer 7.5% below today's asking price."

It can't.

The number tells us how far the final sale price was from the starting price, including any reductions along the way. Momentum Research specifically notes that its measure captures price cuts made during the listing as well as negotiation at closing.

Sellers Are Still Getting More Than Last Year

There's another important detail.

In September 2025, the median sale-to-original-list ratio was 91.5%.

In September 2026, it was 92.5%.

That's a one-percentage-point improvement for sellers.

So although buyers are still negotiating, sellers are actually retaining slightly more of their original asking price than they were a year earlier.

This is why the current market shouldn't simply be described as a "buyer's market."

It's more balanced than that headline suggests.

Homes Are Also Going Under Contract Faster

The September 2026 median time to go under contract was 83 days, compared with 88 days a year earlier.

That's five days faster year over year.

A faster market generally gives sellers more confidence, particularly when combined with rising closed-sale prices.

But 83 days is still enough time for buyers to conduct meaningful due diligence.

For comparison, this isn't a market where every well-priced home necessarily receives multiple offers within a few days.

A buyer may still have time to:

• Review comparable sales
• Get an inspection
• Obtain insurance quotes
• Investigate flood exposure
• Review permits
• Evaluate the seawall
• Inspect a dock and boat lift
• Negotiate repairs
• Negotiate price

That can be especially important for waterfront properties.

Why Listing Prices Don't Tell the Whole Story

One of the easiest mistakes buyers and sellers can make is focusing too heavily on active listings.

A listing price is what a seller wants to receive.

A closed sale is what a buyer actually paid.

Those are different pieces of information.

That's why closed-sale data can be particularly useful when determining whether a property is realistically priced.

For example, if comparable homes are consistently closing below their original asking prices, an active listing that's priced significantly higher needs a compelling reason to justify the premium.

That reason could be:

• Better waterfront
• Larger lot
• Superior condition
• Better elevation
• Deep-water dockage
• New construction
• Exceptional views
• Prime location
• High-quality renovation

Without those differences, the asking price may simply be too aggressive.

But Don't Apply 7.5% Across the Board

This is perhaps the most important takeaway for buyers.

The 92.5% median is a market-level statistic.

It is not an automatic negotiation formula.

You shouldn't look at a $1.5 million home and immediately assume:

"$1.3875 million must be the right offer."

That could be completely wrong.

The property could be:

• Newly listed
• Correctly priced
• Underpriced
• Highly desirable
• Rare waterfront inventory
• Recently renovated
• Located in a neighborhood with limited supply

In that situation, a seller may have very little reason to accept a large discount.

On the other hand, a property that's been sitting for months with multiple price reductions may provide considerably more negotiating opportunity.

Days on Market Can Help You Understand Your Leverage

The 83-day median is useful, but you need to compare the specific property to its local market.

Suppose you're looking at a home that has been listed for:

15 days

and comparable properties are selling in approximately 80–90 days.

Your negotiating position may be different from a property that has been sitting for:

180 days.

A long marketing period can indicate:

• Overpricing
• Property-specific issues
• Insurance problems
• Condition concerns
• Limited buyer pool
• Unusual layout
• Difficult waterfront characteristics

But long days on market aren't automatically negative.

A $5 million luxury home can naturally take longer to sell than a $700,000 property.

That's why price segment matters.

Price Cuts Are Another Important Signal

Momentum Research reports that 19.2% of Florida Keys listings had price cuts in the September 2026 data.

That tells us sellers aren't simply listing high and waiting indefinitely.

Some are adjusting prices.

For buyers, a price reduction can be an opportunity to investigate.

But don't assume every price reduction represents a bargain.

Ask:

Why was the price reduced?

Was the property:

• Originally overpriced?
• Competing with better homes?
• Sitting on the market?
• Facing insurance challenges?
• In need of repairs?
• Difficult to finance?
• Simply testing the market?

The reason behind the reduction matters.

The Median Closed Price Is Up 16.8%

The other major headline is the $1.025 million median closed-sale price.

That's up 16.8% year over year.

At first glance, that looks like a very strong appreciation number.

And it is a meaningful market signal.

But buyers and sellers should still be cautious about interpreting the median as a pure measure of home appreciation.

Why?

Because the mix of properties that sell changes every month.

If September had more high-value waterfront sales than September of the previous year, the median could rise even if individual comparable properties weren't appreciating by 16.8%.

Momentum itself notes that medians can move with the mix of homes sold, as well as with prices.

That's why a property-specific analysis should always include actual comparable sales.

New Construction Is Affecting the Numbers

Another interesting detail in the September data is the difference between new construction and resale properties.

Momentum reports:

Median new-construction sale: $1.59 million

Median resale sale: $1 million

The new-construction median was down 43.2% year over year, while the resale median was down 1.8%.

This is another reason not to treat the $1.025 million overall median as a simple appreciation number.

The Keys market contains very different types of properties, and the mix matters.

What Does This Mean for Buyers?

For buyers, the current market may offer a useful combination:

Prices aren't necessarily falling.

The September median closed price was up substantially year over year.

But negotiation hasn't disappeared.

The median sale-to-original-list ratio was 92.5%.

And homes aren't necessarily moving immediately.

The median time to contract was 83 days.

That means buyers may have room to negotiate without necessarily waiting for a broad market decline.

Instead of trying to predict a crash, a buyer may be better served by finding a property with:

• Motivated seller
• Longer days on market
• Previous price reductions
• Strong comparable sales support
• Manageable insurance
• Good condition
• Sound seawall and dock
• No major permitting problems

What Does This Mean for Sellers?

For sellers, the numbers are encouraging, but they don't justify overpricing.

The market's median closed price is up.

Homes are going under contract slightly faster.

And sellers are retaining a little more of their original asking price than they did a year ago.

But buyers still have negotiating power.

A seller who prices significantly above comparable sales may end up making multiple reductions before finding a buyer.

That can be more costly than pricing correctly from the beginning.

The goal shouldn't be:

"List as high as possible."

It should be:

"Price where today's buyers will recognize the value."

Waterfront Properties Need a Different Analysis

This is particularly important in the Florida Keys.

A waterfront home isn't simply worth:

Square footage × neighborhood price per square foot.

You also need to consider:

• Canal depth
• Dockage
• Boat-lift capacity
• Open-water access
• Bridge clearance
• Seawall condition
• Elevation
• Flood exposure
• Insurance
• Views
• Lot configuration

Two homes in the same neighborhood can have dramatically different values because one offers substantially better boating access.

For a serious Keys buyer, the waterfront characteristics may be more important than the difference between a 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom home.

What Does This Mean for a $1 Million Home?

Let's use the market median only as an illustration.

A hypothetical home originally listed at:

$1,000,000

If it eventually closed at the market-level 92.5% ratio, that would imply:

$925,000

But this is not a valuation.

It's simply an illustration of what the market statistic means.

The actual value could be:

$800,000

$925,000

$1 million

or more than $1 million

depending on the property's characteristics and comparable sales.

The 92.5% statistic is useful for understanding market behavior, not for replacing a comparative market analysis.

So, How Much Below Asking Are Florida Keys Homes Selling?

The latest September 2026 Momentum data gives us a useful answer:

The median Florida Keys sale closed at 92.5% of the original asking price.

That's approximately 7.5% below the original list price.

But remember:

Original asking price ≠ final asking price.

Some of that difference may have happened through price reductions before the final negotiation.

And the market is not static.

The 92.5% figure is a median across the county, not a rule for every property.

The More Important Question: How Much Can You Negotiate?

If you're buying a Florida Keys home in 2026, don't start with:

"How much below asking can I offer?"

Start with:

"What is this property actually worth based on recent comparable sales?"

Then consider:

How long has it been listed?

Longer marketing periods can create leverage.

Has the price been reduced?

Multiple reductions can be meaningful.

How does it compare with competing properties?

A buyer has more leverage when there are several comparable homes available.

Is the property unique?

Rare waterfront characteristics can limit your negotiating leverage.

Is the seller motivated?

A seller facing a relocation, estate sale or other circumstances may have different priorities.

What condition is the property in?

Major repairs can materially affect your offer.

What Buyers Should Watch in the Coming Months

The next few months will be particularly useful for determining whether the September trend continues.

Watch:

Median closed-sale price

Are prices continuing to rise?

Days to contract

Are homes moving faster?

Sale-to-original-list ratio

Are sellers receiving more or less of their initial asking price?

Price reductions

Are sellers becoming more flexible?

Closed-sale volume

Is demand broadening?

Waterfront vs. non-waterfront

Are premium properties behaving differently from the broader market?

These indicators together will provide a much clearer picture than any single headline.

Florida Keys Buyers Still Have Negotiating Power

The most accurate description of the September market may be:

A stronger market with continued negotiation.

The median closed price is up 16.8% year over year.

Homes are going under contract five days faster.

But sellers are still closing at a median of 92.5% of their original asking price.

That's a very different market from one where buyers have no negotiating power.

At the same time, it isn't necessarily a market where buyers should expect every seller to accept a large discount.

The property matters.