Should You Buy New Construction or Resale in the Florida Keys?

1. The 2026 Numbers

Here is what the latest September data shows:

Source: Momentum Research, September 2026 MLS data.

The first thing to notice is that resale remains the dominant part of the market. Of the 149 total September closings reported by Momentum, 14 were classified as new construction and 135 as resale. New construction is growing rapidly, but it is still a relatively small segment of the overall market.

2. Why New Construction Costs More

A new home can command a premium because you are potentially buying newer building systems, modern hurricane-resistant construction, updated electrical and plumbing, new HVAC and appliances, modern layouts, lower immediate maintenance needs and potentially improved flood resilience. In a coastal market like the Florida Keys, some of those characteristics can be particularly valuable. A buyer purchasing an older waterfront property may need to budget for major improvements to the roof, windows, electrical, HVAC, plumbing, foundation, seawall, dock and elevation-related requirements.

A new home can eliminate some of those immediate concerns, but that does not mean every new home is automatically a better financial investment.

3. The 59% Premium Needs Context

The September medians were $1.59 million for new construction versus $1 million for resale, a $590,000 difference. At first glance that may seem like buyers are paying an enormous premium simply for something new. But median statistics do not compare two identical homes.

The new-construction homes that closed could have been larger, waterfront, more luxurious, on better lots, in more desirable communities, built with higher-end finishes and designed for higher-end buyers, while resale transactions may have included smaller homes, condos, older homes, properties requiring renovation and non-waterfront properties.

Momentum itself cautions that medians move with the mix of homes sold as well as the prices. So the $1.59 million versus $1 million comparison is useful, but it should not be interpreted as a direct apples-to-apples comparison.

4. Why New-Construction Sales Jumped 366.7%

New-construction closings increased from a much smaller number a year earlier to 14 closings in September 2026, producing that 366.7% year-over-year increase. That is a huge percentage change, but percentage changes can look dramatic when the starting number is small. For example, going from 3 sales to 14 sales represents a 366.7% increase, but it is still only 11 additional transactions.

That is why this number should be viewed as a signal that new construction is becoming more active, rather than proof that the entire Florida Keys market is suddenly shifting to new homes.

5. New Construction Isn't Necessarily Getting More Expensive

The September 2026 median price for new construction was $1.59 million, but that figure was actually 43.2% lower than the new-construction median a year earlier. That sounds contradictory: how can the median be $1.59 million and still be down 43.2%?

Because we are talking about median transaction prices, not the appreciation rate of identical homes. If a very small number of expensive new homes closed one year and a different mix of moderately priced new homes closed the next year, the median can change dramatically. Buyers should never conclude that because new-construction prices fell 43%, every new home is now 43% cheaper. That is not what the data means.

6. The Case for Buying New Construction

• Less immediate maintenance. You are generally starting with newer roof, HVAC, appliances, plumbing, electrical, windows and doors. That does not mean maintenance disappears; it means you are potentially reducing the deferred maintenance you are inheriting.
• Modern construction standards. New construction must comply with the standards applicable when it is constructed, which can matter in the Keys because of hurricanes, wind, flooding and coastal exposure. Monroe County's building department reviews projects for structural, floodplain, environmental and other applicable approvals, but verify the specific standards and certifications rather than assuming "new" automatically means "hurricane-proof."
• Modern floor plans. New construction may offer open kitchens, larger primary suites, modern bathrooms, dedicated laundry, better storage, larger windows, outdoor living areas and contemporary finishes, which can be worth a premium to buyers who want a move-in-ready lifestyle.
• Potentially lower immediate renovation costs. You may pay more upfront but potentially avoid many of the immediate renovation expenses a resale can bring.

7. The Case for Buying Resale

The major advantage is location. The Florida Keys have limited land, and many established waterfront neighborhoods simply cannot be recreated. A resale property may give you access to a mature neighborhood, established landscaping, existing docks, deep-water canals, better boating routes, larger lots and walkable locations.

You might find an older house in an exceptional location that is much more valuable to you than a brand-new house in a less desirable location.

8. Waterfront Location Can Matter More Than Age

When comparing Keys properties, ask where the house is before asking how old the house is. A property's location can determine boating access, water depth, views, flood exposure, walkability, privacy, rental appeal and resale demand. A new home in an inferior location does not automatically outperform an older home in a premium location.

9. Flood Maps Add Another Layer to the Decision

This is particularly important in the Florida Keys right now. Monroe County says its coastal flood maps are still in the process of being updated and that another set of preliminary maps will be released before the maps are finalized. The county says the current FEMA preliminary maps and its appeal maps are not final or adopted.

For new construction, buyers should understand the elevation and flood requirements applicable to the property. For resale properties, buyers should investigate existing elevation, the elevation certificate, flood zone, permits, previous improvements and potential future renovation requirements. Monroe County specifically warns that projects permitted under existing maps could potentially become non-conforming after the maps change, and that owners should consider potential future requirements when designing improvements.

10. The 50% Rule Matters When Buying an Older Home

If you are considering a major renovation of a resale property, don't assume you can simply renovate everything you want. Monroe County explains that substantial improvements in applicable flood areas can trigger current construction requirements when the improvement cost reaches 50% or more of the property's market value.

Before planning a major renovation of an older home, ask whether the scale of the renovation will trigger additional floodplain requirements. That can materially change the economics of a project.

11. Insurance Should Be Part of the Comparison

A home isn't affordable simply because you can afford the mortgage. For Florida Keys buyers, compare homeowners insurance, flood insurance, wind coverage, property taxes, HOA fees, maintenance, and dock and seawall expenses.

Monroe County notes that flood insurance is separate from standard homeowners insurance and that federally backed loans generally require flood insurance when the building is located in a Special Flood Hazard Area. Never assume a new home will automatically be cheaper to insure. Get an actual quote for the specific property.

12. ROGO and New Construction

New residential development in parts of unincorporated Monroe County is subject to the county's Rate of Growth Ordinance (ROGO) system. Monroe County says the previous market-rate allocation period closed in 2026, with the next allocation period anticipated to open July 13, 2027, although amendments to the Comprehensive Plan and Land Development Code are still in process. Building-permit applications submitted after June 12, 2026 can continue to be accepted and reviewed, but applicants cannot submit a ROGO application until the new allocation period begins.

A buyer purchasing a completed new home is different from someone buying vacant land and planning to obtain an allocation and build. If you are considering vacant land, development rights and ROGO eligibility should be investigated before you assume the lot can support your intended project.

13. Which Is Better for Investors?

A new property may offer lower immediate maintenance, stronger appeal to certain renters, modern amenities, potentially easier resale and less renovation risk, but the higher purchase price can reduce the investment's yield. A resale property may offer a lower acquisition cost, renovation upside, an established rental history, an established neighborhood and potential value-add opportunity, but it may also require repairs, renovation, insurance upgrades, maintenance and capital expenditures.

The best investment isn't necessarily the one with the lowest purchase price. It's the one where purchase price plus ownership costs plus expected improvements make sense relative to rental income plus resale value plus long-term appreciation potential.

14. Resale Value and Scarcity

New construction may appeal to buyers who want move-in readiness, modern design, minimal immediate renovation and new systems. But a desirable resale property may have something new construction cannot recreate: scarcity. A particular canal, view, neighborhood, lot or boating route can remain valuable even when the house itself is older.

15. A $1 Million Resale vs a $1.59 Million New Home

Let's put the current median difference into practical terms. The difference is $590,000, a substantial amount. So the question becomes: is the new home actually giving you $590,000 of additional value? Maybe, but not automatically.

If the resale property has superior waterfront access, a better lot and strong structural bones, you might prefer to spend some of that $590,000 renovating it. If you don't want to deal with contractors, renovations, permitting or surprises, the new home may be worth paying more for.

16. Don't Forget the Cost of Renovating a Resale

This is where buyers sometimes underestimate the resale option. A $1 million home that needs $300,000 of work isn't really a $1 million decision. It's closer to a $1 million purchase plus a $300,000 renovation plus carrying costs plus contingency.

And in the Keys, construction can be particularly complicated because projects may involve coastal requirements, floodplain requirements, permitting, environmental considerations, contractor availability, material logistics and insurance requirements. Before purchasing an older home as a renovation project, obtain realistic contractor estimates and investigate permitting and floodplain requirements.

17. The Reverse Is Also True

Don't assume new construction means zero problems. New homes can still have construction defects, landscaping issues, drainage problems, warranty claims, punch-list items, permit issues, HOA restrictions and insurance challenges. "New" does not mean "perfect," so a new home should still receive a professional inspection.

18. What Should You Ask Before Buying New Construction?

Ask the builder: who is the builder, what is the construction timeline, what warranties are included, what appliances and finishes are included, what upgrades cost extra, what flood-zone requirements apply, what is the finished-floor elevation, what permits have been issued, are there HOA or deed restrictions, what are the projected property taxes, what insurance coverage is expected, what seawall and dock work is included, is landscaping included, and what remains to be completed. And have your own professionals inspect the property.

19. What Should You Ask Before Buying Resale?

Ask: how old is the roof, how old is the HVAC, has the home had storm damage, are all improvements permitted, is there an elevation certificate, what flood zone is the property in, what is the insurance cost, what is the condition of the seawall, is the dock permitted, what is the canal depth, what are the recent comparable sales, has the property had previous price reductions, are there rental restrictions, and what renovations are likely to be needed.

Monroe County specifically recommends checking permitting history before purchasing, because buyers may become responsible for correcting improperly permitted work.

20. So, Should You Buy New Construction or Resale?

Choose new construction if you value modern construction, lower immediate maintenance, contemporary design and move-in readiness, and you're comfortable paying a premium for those benefits. New construction can make particular sense for a buyer who doesn't want to spend the first few years owning a Keys home coordinating renovations.

Choose resale if you prioritize location, established neighborhoods, waterfront characteristics, boating access, character or value over having everything brand new. A resale can also make sense if you're comfortable renovating and want to create a home that fits your needs.